China trade war and Brexit threaten global growth says International Monetary Fund

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China and the United States have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs over the past few months, rattling financial markets as investors anxious the escalating trade war could knock global trade and investment.

But the BSP, after the 6.7-percent inflation rate in September was announced last Friday (October 5), said inflation may have actually peaked during that month and is expected to decelerate in 2019 and 2020 in the absence of further shocks.

The IMF expects the USA economy to continue growing this year at 2.9%, but sees that rate falling to 2.5% next year amid the country's escalating trade war with China.

Growth is expected to "remain strong elsewhere in emerging and developing Asia", the International Monetary Fund said, forecasting Indian growth to increase to 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.4 percent in 2019.

This acceleration reflected a rebound from transitory shocks (demonetisation and implementation of the GST), with strengthening investment and robust private consumption, it said.

Trump has levied or threatened tariffs on goods from economies around the world, notably China, but also on traditional allies such as the European Union.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook report, unveiled on the eve of its upcoming summit in Bali, Indonesia, estimated that global growth in 2018 would reach 3.7 percent, the same as the previous year but lower than the 3.9 percent it had forecast earlier this year.

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"We need to work together to de-escalate and resolve the current trade disputes", Lagarde said at an International Monetary Fund and World Bank gathering in Bali. "Risks to global growth skew to the downside in a context of elevated policy uncertainty".

World Bank president Jim Yong Kim also warned against an escalation of the trade row, saying that the development lender's agenda depended on strong trade flows and that there would be a clear hit to growth if all countries followed through on their trade threats.

That initiative includes China, India and Japan, but not the United States.

WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo said in a discussion on Wednesday that major deals the body made in 2013, including a consensus to eliminate export subsidies in agriculture, made no significant progress. The report said that aggregate growth in the emerging market and developing economy group stabilised in the first half of 2018.

"Notwithstanding the present demand momentum, we have downgraded our 2019 USA growth forecast owing to the recently enacted tariffs on a wide range of imports from China and China's retaliation". Systematic compilation of use of public sector balance sheets can lead to lower debt servicing costs and higher return on assets, better management of risks.

Lagarde said a currency war would not be welcome news, but she also suggested China has been moving in the right direction.

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