Despite the disappointing second round, Woods is still in excellent shape to advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship: our model estimates his chances at 97 percent.
And when he did have them, Woods didn't make them. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 10K simulations. He was 1-over after eight and made his first birdie of the day on No. 9. Just nothing went in. He was at 9 under when Woods finished, only to make consecutive bogeys and finish with a two-putt birdie for a 62.
Woods will hold a share of the first-round lead for the first time since the 2013 WGC-Cadillac Championship, a tournament he went on to win.
"I've got to make birdies over the weekend".
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"If someone had given me a 62 on the first tee this morning I would have taken it", McIlroy said.
Jordan Spieth, the third member of the star-studded group, was even through 11 holes.
The man in the box seat for the last ticket to Paris remains the equally impressive Tony Finau, who matched his rival's 64 on Friday to lie five off the lead and continue his wonderful form this season, including three top 10s in the four majors and two top-four finishes heading into this event. The crowd was much thinner for McIlroy, but those fans saw quite a show. It looked like all the putts were going to go in, but they didn't go in today.
"I didn't hit as many fairways and I got some really bad lies in the rough", said McIlroy, who followed a birdie at the sixth with bogeys at the eighth and 12th before picking up birdies from close range at the 13th and 16th.
He missed a 4-foot par putt on the par-3 fifth hole and didn't convert any of the birdie putts from the 20-foot range.