Study puts thousands of ENC homes at repeated risk for tidal flooding

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One of Floridas biggest draws is also one if its biggest liabilities — its coastline.

The acceleration of sea level rise which is primarily driven by climate change, is predicted to worsen tidal flooding in the U.S. And Tampa Bay faces some of the greatest risk within the Sunshine State.

Hundreds of thousands of homes along USA coastlines could be flooded in the next 30 years as a result of climate change, scientists said in a new report Monday.

This would be especially problematic for rural and small regions where the tax base is nearly entirely reliant on property tax revenue, the report says.

The risk of flooding could result in declining property values, tax appraisals and as such revenue for city services like roads and schools.

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By 2045, almost 64,000 residential properties in the state — worth about $26 billion— are at risk for constant flooding. About 2,300 commercial properties are also projected to be significantly affected by the flooding by 2045, amounting to about $3 billion in value.

Using three scenarios developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the UCS estimated the number of properties in the 48 mainland states that could be affected by high tides and regular flooding, not counting major storms.

Their intermediate scenario assumes global average sea level rise about 1 foot by 2035 and about 4 feet by 2100 based on current ice sheet melting rates and global carbon emissions forecasts through the middle of the century. Third is Miami, with up to 20 percent of its base at risk by 2045 and 21 to 60 percent by 2100.

The 28-page report from the Union of Concerned Scientists said more than 300,000 homes in vulnerable areas could see flooding if temperatures rise too much. These include Miami, Miami Beach, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and the Keys.

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