"Non-OPEC supply is expected to rise sharply in 2019 led by U.S. shale growth, along with Russia, Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan", U.S. bank JPMorgan said in its quarterly outlook published on Friday, adding that it was bearish on the oil price outlook going into the second-half of the year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, together with partners including Russian Federation, has cut oil output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January 2017 in an effort to boost the market.
The minister, Jabar al-Luaibi, said that oil prices still require support and stability, and producers "should not over-exaggerate" the oil markets need for more supplies. The reality is it may slow the increase, but really the planned increase of 1 million barrels a day will barely offset plunging output from Venezuelan and the impact from the US sanctions on Iran.
"Looking at various sources, considerable uncertainty as to world oil demand and non-OPEC supply prevails", according to the report, published by OPEC's secretariat in Vienna.
Oil prices fell on Monday, pulled down by rising Russian production and USA drilling activity creeping to its highest in more than three years. Today, Brent oil stood at almost United States dollars 76.
Although he didn't state when, Malek wrote that "our analysis suggests a return in prices to the low $50s once Opec, shale producers, and major global oil companies start to fight for a greater share of the world's oil demand".
OPEC secretary general Mohammad Barkindo in April praised the agreement as a "great success".
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"We opine that oil prices will, however, sustain its range-trading behavior into the OPEC meeting on June 22, barring further concrete rhetoric by OPEC members regarding their production decisions", OCBC commodity economist, Barnabas Gan, said.
Speculation that the buffer could decline from three per cent to two per cent of global demand would bring the spare production capacity down to levels not seen since 1984. They've not been very successful at that, however, since numerous OPEC countries, as well as Russian Federation, have fallen short on agreed production cut-backs.
This is setting the scene for a fractious meeting when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners gather in Vienna on June 22-23.
Even as OPEC trims output, production from non-OPEC members is rising.
The comments suggest that a good portion of the cartel is lining up against any move to increase production. Iran's share of OPEC production increased slightly last month, possibly a sign that the country's crude exports have not yet been affected by the U.S. decision to ditch a landmark worldwide nuclear accord with Tehran and re-impose damaging sanctions.
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