NOAA breaks down chance of a major hurricane season

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"We're expecting a near-average season, which means a lot of storms forming in the Atlantic, which again means this is the time to start getting prepared for the hurricane season".

They believe there is a 70 percent chance of 10 to 16 named storms, of which five to nine could become hurricanes.

Earlier this week, NOAA made a similar prediction for the Central Pacific region, predicting a normal to above-normal season with as a whole, three to six tropical cyclones.

One to four of those hurricanes could be "major" with threatening winds blowing at at least 111mph.

This coming year, NOAA's analysis of long-term climate trends in the Atlantic Ocean, the temperature of the ocean, and other factors, don't add up to conditions that would stoke an extreme hurricane season.

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Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now near their long-term average values, according to the researchers at Colorado State.

"We use all the data we can get", says Dr. Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They were among 17 storms large enough to merit their own names which tore through the Atlantic basin, including 10 hurricanes.

Acting Federal Emergency Management Agency Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski recommends people in hurricane-prone areas like Florida and coastal Texas to prepare ahead of the upcoming storm season.

NOAA will update its predictions in August, just before the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30. A normal hurricane season sees an average of 12 named storms, half of which end up becoming hurricanes and three of which develop into major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

There's a 35% chance that this hurricane season will be above normal, a 40% chance for a near-normal season, and a 25% chance for a below-normal season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which released its forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday. And while Xie and his team can not forecast where a hurricane will strike, he says their seasonal forecasts should be used to plan ahead He says the preseason forecast is a warm-up for people to pay attention to the actual forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. "Those storms tend to track farther westward, and that's why the Caribbean and the continental United States are more at risk". He said, " Some years we are doing really well, and some other years when conditions are more hard to predict, everyone fails and we fail as well".

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